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TOP BUY ON THE DIP:
SOMAXON; SOMX (NASDAQ):
-SILENOR APPROVED BY FDA
--53 MLN RAISED THROUGH EQUITY OFFERING,
- LAST CC: CO. ON TRACK TO LAUNCH SILENOR EARLY 2H HALF 2010
-STOCK DEEPLY UNDERVALUED AND OVERSOLD
- MARKET CURRENTLY VALUES THE CO. ABOUT 50M (100M MKT. CAP. LESS 50M CASH RAISED)
- 7/1/10 CLOSE 3,1 USD: STRONG BUY ON THIS DIP
SILENOR OPPORTUNITY:
Unique Mechanism of Action
* Silenor is a potent antagonist that appears to selectively affect histamine at the H 1 receptor without a clinically relevant impact on other neurotransmitter systems.
Significant Market Potential
· In 2008 the prescription market for the treatment of insomnia grew approximately 6% compared to 2007 to more than 60 million prescriptions.
* The insomnia market accounted for more than $2.0billion in sales in 2008.
* It is estimated that only about 20% of the 70 million people who suffer from insomnia are on prescription therapy.
* Independent third party analysis has resulted in estimated peak annual sales for Silenor exceeding $500M.
Differentiated Clinical and Safety Features
* Only non-DEA scheduled product to treat sleep maintenance insomnia.
* No clinically relevant evidence of next day residual effects.
* Not DEA scheduled; no abuse potential or risk of dependency.
* No GABA-related side effects.
Minimal Barriers to Market Entry
* Accessible market; 42,000 physicians account for 50% of all TRxs.
* Competitive promotional spend decreasing year over year.
* Fewer promoted brands.
* Sampling advantage over commonly prescribed products.
Generic Competition not a threat
* 10 mg available in capsules, impossible to divided
* 10 mg equals almost double or triple of insomnia dosage recommended
*10 mg risks of next day effects
Comprehensive IP Protection
* Patent protected for use in insomnia through 2020.
* Formulation exclusivity with patent protected key excipient.
* Multiple new patent applications related to formulation and label.
* Next generation product in development.
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